Expert Agrees! County is unlikely to see increased revenue from Mall on Paul Project; And, benefits to Chili would be short-term

"....Why Chili is unlikely to see radical growth for the foreseeable future comes down to simple demographics, according to Kent Gardner, president and chief economist for the Rochester-based think tank, The Center for Governmental Research. Monroe County’s population is basically flat, he points out. According to census data, the county’s total population decreased 0.02 percent, from 735,343 in 2000 to an estimated 735,177 in 2004. A rule of thumb for economies in these situations is that, while retail can shift, it doesn’t grow, said Gardner. At the end of the day there are only so many retail dollars to go around, he said. That raises an unsettling issue, Gardner further points out; if the dollars spent at Chili Commons would otherwise be spent at business in some other municipality, then Chili’s economic gain would largely be some other community’s loss. And, he noted, that sword cuts both ways. Research has shown, he said, that commercial retail centers have set life spans. After that point, many fail or at least run into difficulty, particularly when something newer and flashier has become available. A perfect case study would be the long-troubled Irondequoit Mall, he said. Though the new owner of the mall, which is now known as Medley Center, is attempting to pump new life into it, the shopping complex is still struggling to fill empty storefronts and attract sufficient customers...."

From "What Comes After Chili Commons?" Gates-Chili Post June 22, 2006